recession

Cain said:
I believe we are in a living depression and not just a recession. Current wages don't match the cost of goods. Ive been seeing a considerable slow down in tenders that are available to bid on. It's been slowing more each of the past 3 years.
There's no money being moved through the little guys and soon as that ends its gonna hit the bigger vendors.
I've been working my bagboff the past few months and going from passed clients to new and projects are not moving anywhere at this point.
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Are you in civil? If so that line of work sees things like downturns first. When I was in civil tenders come out for the engineers a few years before project start date and contractors' bids 6 to 24mths for most projects (other than enormous projects like a new waste water treatment facility). The other gauge I have found is manufacturing and traditionally the first industry that sees a slow down is the die and mold shops. Die sets take a while to make so the die/mold sector sees a slowdown about 6mths out, like clockwork. Same 'ol cycle of the economy.
 
Mfg Eng said:
Are you in civil? If so that line of work sees things like downturns first. When I was in civil tenders come out for the engineers a few years before project start date and contractors' bids 6 to 24mths for most projects (other than enormous projects like a new waste water treatment facility). The other gauge I have found is manufacturing and traditionally the first industry that sees a slow down is the die and mold shops. Die sets take a while to make so the die/mold sector sees a slowdown about 6mths out, like clockwork. Same 'ol cycle of the economy.
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I work on the manufacturing and Installation side of things!
We hear the buzz from the engineers that stamp the permits working in civil.
I didn't see it when I was told about the drop off because I was still tendering 10 15 jobs a week. Like you said a bout 6 months later I'm lucky to see 10 a month. Also talking into consideration with my business we see a drop off Aug to Sept while summer ends and kids head back to school, takes time to get back to normal business life. The rise happens till Xmas and drops again till April. We can predict future sales.
Thats the norm.
What I seen this year was vastly different and reflected with my competitors. Sales never slowed down last year and field work ran through the winter. Busy right till April.
Dead slow now and next to No tenders being seen.
 
Everyone I supply has slowed down about 15%. They are asking me if I’ve slowed (I’ve been damn lucky and have increased about 15% so far over last year, but that due to good advertizing mixed with old business I dropped because I was too busy with covid, that I took back on now that things have normalized).
But you can almost ”feel” it happening. The drivers are delivering earlier so I know they are not as busy.

I am just damn lucky that I do further processing, so the counter slows and I can drum up business with the kill plants doing finishing processing for their customers. Not as much profit, but at least we are not standing around. I feel sorry for the retail guys that don’t have this option.

I’ll see how hunting season fares. This is a great way to see if people have any expendable cash.

Mind you I could lose 50% of my business and still be somewhat profitable, the advantage of running the shop over capacity. But it still bothers me.
 
Sorbate said:
Everyone I supply has slowed down about 15%. They are asking me if I’ve slowed (I’ve been damn lucky and have increased about 15% so far over last year, but that due to good advertizing mixed with old business I dropped because I was too busy with covid, that I took back on now that things have normalized).
But you can almost ”feel” it happening. The drivers are delivering earlier so I know they are not as busy.

I am just damn lucky that I do further processing, so the counter slows and I can drum up business with the kill plants doing finishing processing for their customers. Not as much profit, but at least we are not standing around. I feel sorry for the retail guys that don’t have this option.

I’ll see how hunting season fares. This is a great way to see if people have any expendable cash.

Mind you I could lose 50% of my business and still be somewhat profitable, the advantage of running the shop over capacity. But it still bothers me.
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You're in a good place with the business you're in. I should say trade. There's skill to making good tender cuts.
I would be interested to hear how this season goes..see if its on par with previous years or a surge with the rising cost to shop.
We like to bear and deer hunt, however just can't justify the cost of the trip, when I could buy a half or full cow for less. Time off work alone hurts today.
 
Cain said:
You're in a good place with the business you're in. I should say trade. There's skill to making good tender cuts.
I would be interested to hear how this season goes..see if its on par with previous years or a surge with the rising cost to shop.
We like to bear and deer hunt, however just can't justify the cost of the trip, when I could buy a half or full cow for less. Time off work alone hurts today.
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That is what I was thinking. Since it is a expendable adventure, I am thinking that it might be a bit slower.
Now it will be hard to tell maybe because I just started to process the wild game for another meat shop, (I do it for 4 shops now, so even if they get pissed at me and take it to another guy in the area, I’m still likely doing it, lol) so they should have more people that want me to produce for them. So if I don’t do more than last year, I’ll take it as a loss. I did about 30,000 lbs last year into sausage. I do not bone anymore, no time, plus the margins in that are shit, consumes a ton of room for very low profits.
 
deeknows said:
Where would you go? What country and why? I get its getting fucked here and my kids may want immigrate somewhere else eventually. Currently europe is in the shitter. South america is more corrupt and dangerous than canada and america. Middle east is fucked up too. Unless maybe the rich middle east countries. You need a large bank account. Some asian country? Im seriously curious because i ask myself this every so often. Go where? I know canada aint what it was from the 70-90s. Theres still opportunities here, public and private healthcare, peaceful towns with nice people. I feel like a mostly self sufficient compound thats slightly remote is the best option.
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Eu is fine wtf are you talking about?
 
3ml said:
I've actually started to buy stocks quite heavily recently
alot of stuff is down to pre pandemic levels.

I don't think removing the carbon tax will make much of an immediate effect unfortunately. Vendors charging high prices will want to keep those high prices. If in fact we do get rid of this stupid tax it will take a long time for the market to straighten out.

The problem with "high interest " saving is you just get poor slowly as the rates are not keeping up with the devaluation of our shit currency
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OCT was such a good month for stocks/btc i missed so much
 
3ml said:
Yup
This I don't like to listen to "experts". I am up an incredible amount.
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I was going to pull more money to put into intrest but things alwyas go up before Christmas, we will see what happens in January/Feburary.
Glad I didn’t pull the money though. Made good money the last couple months.
 
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