recession

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Rocky

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anyone think a recession is coming?

i've been fascinated by finance and economics the past few years, after I quit bodybuilding I got into stocks, figured if i put as much effort in learning about finance as I did bodybuilding I could make something out of it, can't say I spent nearly as much time as I had other things to do but I spent a fair amount of time understanding finance and basic economics, enough to understand how to find weak companies and short them.

I know of a few banks with a lot of bad loans, by bad loans I mean I know A LOT of people with 100k debt with them that they'll never get back, logically they can't just make that disappear, also know of a few people that got houses mortgages the past few years who couldn't afford the payments from interest rates rising and had to sell, I am thinking if I know a lot of people in this situation, it must be much worse overall

I've been shorting a few banks lately, but being so young I never experienced a full blown recession, anyone think ones around the corner? Mathematically it doesn't make sense for something to not happen, but curious to hear peoples thoughts.
 
Rocky said:
anyone think a recession is coming?

i've been fascinated by finance and economics the past few years, after I quit bodybuilding I got into stocks, figured if i put as much effort in learning about finance as I did bodybuilding I could make something out of it, can't say I spent nearly as much time as I had other things to do but I spent a fair amount of time understanding finance and basic economics, enough to understand how to find weak companies and short them.

I know of a few banks with a lot of bad loans, by bad loans I mean I know A LOT of people with 100k debt with them that they'll never get back, logically they can't just make that disappear, also know of a few people that got houses mortgages the past few years who couldn't afford the payments from interest rates rising and had to sell, I am thinking if I know a lot of people in this situation, it must be much worse overall

I've been shorting a few banks lately, but being so young I never experienced a full blown recession, anyone think ones around the corner? Mathematically it doesn't make sense for something to not happen, but curious to hear peoples thoughts.
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It will come sooner or later a lot of analysts predicted this winter, but even if we get through that think about the next couple of years. The interest rates will keep snowballing on people that need to renew. When those people that bought their million dollar houses on the old rate during the pandemic have their 5 years come up things will go for sure.

I am even seeing people out there houses up for more than an identical new build on the same street and it’s still probably 100k less than what they paid for it.
 
Negan said:
I'm pretty sure we're in a recession already. My fear is hyperinflation, everything has already doubled in price in the last decade and it's accelerating.
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Well a recession would crush inflation and cause deflation from demand destruction

I haven’t really noticed price increases in daily living expenses. Sure luxuries, real estate has gone up and rent prices, but my grocery bill is very cheap, phone bill is roughly the same.
 
Durk said:
It will come sooner or later a lot of analysts predicted this winter, but even if we get through that think about the next couple of years. The interest rates will keep snowballing on people that need to renew. When those people that bought their million dollar houses on the old rate during the pandemic have their 5 years come up things will go for sure.

I am even seeing people out there houses up for more than an identical new build on the same street and it’s still probably 100k less than what they paid for it.
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I doubt it’ll happen that quick, perhaps mid 2024, people are still spending and wages are sky high.

Not to sound conceding but I noticed a lot of people don’t really have any care for what things cost, they just buy it regardless of the price seems logical or not. Especially the younger generation, it seems they don’t really know what things cost to produce. Or maybe I’m just a cheapo, when I date the girls in Toronto I feel like I’m talking to someone from a different planet when they tell me how they spend their money.

Spending their whole pay cheque, leasing cars they can’t afford, renting condos they can’t afford, spending $50-$100 on dinner, buying clothes for $100 a sweater, zero savings and maxing out credit cards to buy clothes or go out with.

Once the recession comes and unemployment / layoffs come they’ll have nothing. It’ll be a pretty big reality check and the economy will come full stop.
 
Rocky said:
Well a recession would crush inflation and cause deflation from demand destruction

I haven’t really noticed price increases in daily living expenses. Sure luxuries, real estate has gone up and rent prices, but my grocery bill is very cheap, phone bill is roughly the same.
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Not necessarily, we very well could go through stagflation.

Perhaps you don't pay much attention to costs or you live a really basic life. Groceries are up 50% to 100%. Fuel, rent, real estate, basically any building supply, restaurants have drastically increases prices....you name it, it's gone up alot. Fucking flights are insane. Gas and electricity are up plus the ridiculous carbon tax.
 
3ml said:
We are already in a recession. Country has been for a longer time than people realize due to Liberal out of control spending. Not only that they chase investment away. This country is beyond fucked.
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This right here.

Stagflation is the name now. Continued lower productivity, suppressed wages via inflation which cannot be controlled through Keynesian methods.

Western leaders know the fix is in. They have trashed every economy through vote buying, corruption, and incompetence. They think we are the problem and will aggressively push for tax collection because they cannot admit they’re too stupid to run a lemonade stand.

CBDC’s are their wet dream. Perfect knowledge of what every person spends and where. Need a babysitter?…little Susie better declare that $20 because it will all be known.

Like 3ml says…we are all fucked. It needs to crash and burn before the sheep realize the Shepard sold them all to the wolves.

You will own nothing and you better be happy…or else
 
Lumberjock said:
This right here.

Stagflation is the name now. Continued lower productivity, suppressed wages via inflation which cannot be controlled through Keynesian methods.

Western leaders know the fix is in. They have trashed every economy through vote buying, corruption, and incompetence. They think we are the problem and will aggressively push for tax collection because they cannot admit they’re too stupid to run a lemonade stand.

CBDC’s are their wet dream. Perfect knowledge of what every person spends and where. Need a babysitter?…little Susie better declare that $20 because it will all be known.

Like 3ml says…we are all fucked. It needs to crash and burn before the sheep realize the Shepard sold them all to the wolves.

You will own nothing and you better be happy…or else
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Very well said sir
 
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3ml said:
We are already in a recession. Country has been for a longer time than people realize due to Liberal out of control spending. Not only that they chase investment away. This country is beyond fucked.
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Not only are they chasing investment away, but they're giving tax breaks to billion-dollar corporations that act as talent mills for their counterparts in the U.S. The cream that rises to the top flees for a 100%+ pay increase in the states. It's absurd, and this current government has done nothing to stop the bleeding. How can we strengthen a nation's economy via innovation of products and services when those with the skills and leadership to do so ship off to start companies in the US and abroad.

As much as our current government sucks, the governments that preceded them also contributed to our current shitholeness. This mess goes back to before the Harper administration. I fucking hate neo-capitalist politics/politicians. Before I get roasted for being 'socialist,' I'm pro-capitalism. Just not the brand we've become accustomed to.
 
How long before america turns the illegal immigrants into legal citizens. When they do, that unemployment number is gonna look a lot different lol. Anyways. Most people that follow the economy know we are in a recession for a while now but markets will crash soon, to follow suit finally. There is becoming no way to deny it anymore. Things are finally being televised in main stream media. Housing, banking, inflation, money supply, savings, debt numbers etc. No soft landing b.s. shits gotta hit the fan shortly. Unless another major lockdown and more stimy checks to prolong the inevitable. We will all pay for the wreckless spending of the corrupt governments.
 
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Another thing to keep in Mind is trudeau has racked up more debt than all other PMs combined. Our dollar is so devalued and our debt is massive. Couple that with his idiotic stance towards the energy industry. The ridiculous carbon tax that drives up the price of everything....this country is beyond fucked.

If a responsible government took over tmrw it would take countless years to get out of this mess. Plan to get the fuck out of this country or plan to be poor.
 
3ml said:
Another thing to keep in Mind is trudeau has racked up more debt than all other PMs combined. Our dollar is so devalued and our debt is massive. Couple that with his idiotic stance towards the energy industry. The ridiculous carbon tax that drives up the price of everything....this country is beyond fucked.

If a responsible government took over tmrw it would take countless years to get out of this mess. Plan to get the fuck out of this country or plan to be poor.
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Where would you go? What country and why? I get its getting fucked here and my kids may want immigrate somewhere else eventually. Currently europe is in the shitter. South america is more corrupt and dangerous than canada and america. Middle east is fucked up too. Unless maybe the rich middle east countries. You need a large bank account. Some asian country? Im seriously curious because i ask myself this every so often. Go where? I know canada aint what it was from the 70-90s. Theres still opportunities here, public and private healthcare, peaceful towns with nice people. I feel like a mostly self sufficient compound thats slightly remote is the best option.
 
deeknows said:
Where would you go? What country and why? I get its getting fucked here and my kids may want immigrate somewhere else eventually. Currently europe is in the shitter. South america is more corrupt and dangerous than canada and america. Middle east is fucked up too. Unless maybe the rich middle east countries. You need a large bank account. Some asian country? Im seriously curious because i ask myself this every so often. Go where? I know canada aint what it was from the 70-90s. Theres still opportunities here, public and private healthcare, peaceful towns with nice people. I feel like a mostly self sufficient compound thats slightly remote is the best option.
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Mexico
I have already lived there for a spell.
Currency is stronger than the Canadian Ruble, Middle class is expanding at an insane rate while ours is shrinking. Way less taxes. Good Healthcare. Weather is good and people have the mentality we did here 30 years ago. Plenty of opportunities, great weather, vast beautiful country with any kind of climate or scenery you are after. The food....the food is enough to move there for. Not only is mexican food outstanding but the quality of produce abd meats you buy out miles above the slop we get here.
In the wealthier areas the infrastructure is far nicer than here.
Over the counter GH and AAS or any other medication you need. Very nice people who are loyal friends and are fiercely proud of their culture. Another big thing is there are fiercely independent and don't let other countries dictate their course in the world. Fairly simple to get residency as well if you have a bit of ching.

Canada is only a place I harvest money to invest in Mexico. I will be out of this shithole for good in 2025
 
3ml said:
We are already in a recession. Country has been for a longer time than people realize
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3ml said:
Not necessarily, we very well could go through stagflation.

Perhaps you don't pay much attention to costs or you live a really basic life. Groceries are up 50% to 100%. Fuel, rent, real estate, basically any building supply, restaurants have drastically increases prices....you name it, it's gone up alot. Fucking flights are insane. Gas and electricity are up plus the ridiculous carbon tax.
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You think that’s why large cap stocks and etf’s like SPY are trading at double pre pandemic levels still? The price is fixed in to inflation. I think there might be some type of crash, but I don’t think SPY will ever get low enough to trade in the 200’s again.
 
3ml said:
Mexico
I have already lived there for a spell.
Currency is stronger than the Canadian Ruble, Middle class is expanding at an insane rate while ours is shrinking. Way less taxes. Good Healthcare. Weather is good and people have the mentality we did here 30 years ago. Plenty of opportunities, great weather, vast beautiful country with any kind of climate or scenery you are after. The food....the food is enough to move there for. Not only is mexican food outstanding but the quality of produce abd meats you buy out miles above the slop we get here.
In the wealthier areas the infrastructure is far nicer than here.
Over the counter GH and AAS or any other medication you need. Very nice people who are loyal friends and are fiercely proud of their culture. Another big thing is there are fiercely independent and don't let other countries dictate their course in the world. Fairly simple to get residency as well if you have a bit of ching.

Canada is only a place I harvest money to invest in Mexico. I will be out of this shithole for good in 2025
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Their meat sucks, lol.
There is opportunity to buy their version of AAA here and I tried it, it’s not there yet. They don’t have the mix of finishing feed right yet.
They will get there as has other countries, but they would need to import the grain and that would increase price.

Agree with the rest though.

Mond you I have noticed their prices are increasing, housing included, unless you want to live inland.
 
Personally I am almost at the point of putting all my money into an intrest bearing account before shit goes south so I don’t lose my initial investment.
Things were looking up until Trudeau started to fight with India. Then my stocks went down again.

Hopefully we will have an election in the next year, so when the economy stalls and the carbon tax is removed it will reinvigorate it a bit. Couldn’t remove carbon tax right now unless the govt stopped spending into our economy or IMO we could cause more inflation.
 
3ml said:
Not necessarily, we very well could go through stagflation.

Perhaps you don't pay much attention to costs or you live a really basic life. Groceries are up 50% to 100%. Fuel, rent, real estate, basically any building supply, restaurants have drastically increases prices....you name it, it's gone up alot. Fucking flights are insane. Gas and electricity are up plus the ridiculous carbon tax.
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Are groceries and fuel really up that much?

$1.40-1.50 a litre now, it was $1.3 before the pandemic
groceries have been the same cost for me, but I don't eat processed foods
 
Rocky said:
Are groceries and fuel really up that much?

$1.40-1.50 a litre now, it was $1.3 before the pandemic
groceries have been the same cost for me, but I don't eat processed foods
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Very diligent accounting my Costco with 5 family members has gone from $550 precovid a trip to $800. Granted 1 of them was still growing but that's a 45% increase in 3 years. Price of ribeyes has tripled...
 
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