Whos buying crypto?

IronRobi said:
I personally don't believe rates will touch 9% and certainly not maintain that level 5 years from now. I also think this is all going to come sooner than many are expecting. Many are talking 5 years from now because now is when the rates are starting to go up. I believe that right now is when the issues are going to start being seen.

5yr fixed rates in 2017 were around 3%, these people are all up for renewal now at 5%+.
The same 520k renewal as above with a 2% higher interest rate is an additional $600/month in payments. Not to mention the increase in property tax payments because housing values have shot up. That family that's renewing their mortgage this year will likely be on the hook for $800/month more in total. And these rates are going to continue to spike as the BoC continues to increase the base rate making that 2% gap even larger. Let's say rates touch 6% this year (very likely before fall), then you can add another $400/month onto that. Not too many households today have $1,200/month in disposable income, so they'll be forced to sell. The increased rates will make it harder to get approved for those amounts shrinking the buyers pool for that property, increasing time on market which will increase supply and lower demand driving housing values downwards.

I really think by the start of 2023 we'll see a big reversal in the real estate market and it'll probably last 2-3 yrs.
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I am looking at selling my current place to build/buy another.


I've been watching and thinking and it seems to me that some levels of residential might start doing really well right now.. All those higher priced houses are the ones that if interest goes up could be fucked.. The owners might have to sell and likely not many will be wanting to buy.. But the houses in the low to mid levels might be hot sellers.. People will be looking to down grade.. I am not sure if their prices will go up, or if they will just sell easily.

My house is about 350,000 market value by my guess.. All the houses around (I'm rural) are around or over 500,000$.. In the closest town, the housing costs are even higher.. most places are quite a bit over 500,000$. Yes, there is cheaper places in town, but my town grew very fast in the oil booms and the home owners were pulling in crazy wages and banks were handing out 600-900k mortgagves like candy.. Now those mortages in the hiugher interest rates are crazy.. and the jobs/booms just aren;t like they used to be.

I'm not a smart man (forrest gump).. but I'd be guessing lower to mid level homes might be a good investment right now to sell in a year or two...

I keep watching and what i see around here is lowr to mid level houses aren't on the market long.. Anything over 500,000 is just sitting..


Wonder how many of thos oil boom houses will be seized by the banks as well. There's a few around here already.. Banks must be shitting themselves.. Can't really figure out how many super expensive homes with mortgages where the premiums haven't been paid down much are now near forclosure and the banks know they can not sell them for whats left on the mortage.

Again, I'm not a finical genius compared to some ppl here.. but that's just somethings going through my mind right now.
 
animal-inside said:
But the houses in the low to mid levels might be hot sellers.. People will be looking to down grade.. I am not sure if their prices will go up, or if they will just sell easily.
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The issue will be those who have over-extended and needing to sell that 500k+ house will have a smaller buyers pool due to the high interest, and they won't be able to "downgrade" into that 350k house until they sell their 500k+ place. So that will keep inventory levels higher which will drive pricing lower for the whole market. Real estate is the perfect example of supply and demand. It's so inflated right now due to low supply which drove pricing through the roof. But we're starting to see houses on the market longer and supply replenishing, coupled with ever-rising interest rates and the FUD about possibly entering a recession.... things are going to slow down, it's already starting to happen, and when that does happen that's when pricing starts to drop again.

Right now may be a good time for many to have their property re-assessed and set up a product like a home equity line of credit with your lender. I don't think we're headed into times like the great depression, but having access to some of your home's equity in what lies ahead could be the difference between somebody being able to make that mortgage payment or losing their home completely. I'd rather temporarily borrow against the house to pay the payments and dig myself out of it in the future rather than lose it completely.
 
IronRobi said:
The issue will be those who have over-extended and needing to sell that 500k+ house will have a smaller buyers pool due to the high interest, and they won't be able to "downgrade" into that 350k house until they sell their 500k+ place. So that will keep inventory levels higher which will drive pricing lower for the whole market. Real estate is the perfect example of supply and demand. It's so inflated right now due to low supply which drove pricing through the roof. But we're starting to see houses on the market longer and supply replenishing, coupled with ever-rising interest rates and the FUD about possibly entering a recession.... things are going to slow down, it's already starting to happen, and when that does happen that's when pricing starts to drop again.

Right now may be a good time for many to have their property re-assessed and set up a product like a home equity line of credit with your lender. I don't think we're headed into times like the great depression, but having access to some of your home's equity in what lies ahead could be the difference between somebody being able to make that mortgage payment or losing their home completely. I'd rather temporarily borrow against the house to pay the payments and dig myself out of it in the future rather than lose it completely.
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My mortgage payment is ridicuslouly low.. talking 1100 a month.. I can survive in this house forever if needed. I talked the wife out of building/buying for the last few years due to all the non sense happening..

If I see the cost of building drop, I will see if I can move my house easily..
 
Housing sales have died here. Nothing is moving and agents are advertising like crazy.
It matters none to me because I’m happy where I am and no mortage. Not since 2008.
Still kicking my ass for not buying the two for sale in my neighbourhood 3 years ago, but those who hesitate are lost. Instead I invested just before the market collapsed, lol. Fuck me.
So instead of gambling I’m going to do what I have always done and invest in the shop and expand aggressivly into wholesale to other butcher shops. Already supply 6, have a distributor willing to sell my product, getting a 40‘ refrigerated sea can placed behind the shop for storage.
At least I know I’ve never lost money investing in work.
BTW I didn’t sell my stocks, they will come back, they are break even again, I’m just sad to have lost the profit I already made.
I don’t know how you guys do it yourself and not get stressed.
 
animal-inside said:
My mortgage payment is ridicuslouly low.. talking 1100 a month.. I can survive in this house forever if needed. I talked the wife out of building/buying for the last few years due to all the non sense happening..

If I see the cost of building drop, I will see if I can move my house easily..
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Don’t build now . Will be a lot of lost cash. I finally convinced sister in law to wait last year and already paying off for them. Wait until mid 2023. Softwood will be coming down. Contractors will be looking for work instead of wheeling and dealing and you will save at least 25% by waiting.
We are waiting as I’m building on another piece of land I have of ten acres. WIting until 2023. Mills are seeing price drops already, will do a deep dive shortly as stock builds up as housing starts decrease.
 
ironwill said:
Don’t build now . Will be a lot of lost cash. I finally convinced sister in law to wait last year and already paying off for them. Wait until mid 2023. Softwood will be coming down. Contractors will be looking for work instead of wheeling and dealing and you will save at least 25% by waiting.
We are waiting as I’m building on another piece of land I have of ten acres. WIting until 2023. Mills are seeing price drops already, will do a deep dive shortly as stock builds up as housing starts decrease.
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I agree things can only come down.. But if building goes down and housing market completely crashes, than I could be left with losing the same amount of money on my house as I saved waiting to build. We've thought about this and the hope is building prices come down enough that we can rent this place until housing picks up and sell it then.

There's a good deman for rental properties around here right now as no one wants to commint to buying it seems.
 
ironwill said:
Don’t build now . Will be a lot of lost cash. I finally convinced sister in law to wait last year and already paying off for them. Wait until mid 2023. Softwood will be coming down. Contractors will be looking for work instead of wheeling and dealing and you will save at least 25% by waiting.
We are waiting as I’m building on another piece of land I have of ten acres. WIting until 2023. Mills are seeing price drops already, will do a deep dive shortly as stock builds up as housing starts decrease.
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You're from the west correct?

Do you think building materials will drop in the east during this same time period as well? They've been up 20% year over year from 2019. It's killing any project I bid on.

I am interested in getting your perspective.
 
animal-inside said:
I agree things can only come down.. But if building goes down and housing market completely crashes, than I could be left with losing the same amount of money on my house as I saved waiting to build. We've thought about this and the hope is building prices come down enough that we can rent this place until housing picks up and sell it then.

There's a good deman for rental properties around here right now as no one wants to commint to buying it seems.
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Rental will always be good and as housing starts slow, rent goes up. Immigration isn’t slowing down and people need homes. You won’t lose as much as you will save in building supplies house prices will drop. But not overnight.
The reason I said my statement is you said you may keep for rental home and build new. First thing you need to know is if selling or keeping and jumping in rental for investment.
Remember the 1100 dollar mortgage will be paid by someone else and you should be able to make more in rental than your mortgage and insurances.
Then when you do sell, someone else made all those payments for you and now going back into your pocket.
And your overall value has increased con assets you own.
If it were me, I’d rent out and build new and your house will never be empty and if you are living in same community you will keep an eye on the tenants as well.
 
DeezNutz said:
You're from the west correct?

Do you think building materials will drop in the east during this same time period as well? They've been up 20% year over year from 2019. It's killing any project I bid on.

I am interested in getting your perspective.
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It will go down across the country as softwood is on the commodity market. Then gets marked up in stores and distributors.
So yes it will come down everywhere but the regional supply and demand will dictate how much. But base price will be lower fir sure.
 
ironwill said:
Housing materials like softwood and home goods are going down quick. As i mentioned, don't build or buy right now...Hold, hold, hold...
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Manufacturer costs are already way down. But distributors and retailers are still filling orders from when pricing was high, and until those are all filled and all that inventory is depleted, the buyer won't see a drop. Definitely agree with IW here, just wait it out.
 
animal-inside said:
possibly, but wheres the bottom lol
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Obviously not an exact science but keeping informed of how things are going will help get you close and the guy in the videos IDub posted is Scott Curry and is a good to follow to keep abreast of the situation. There are a few other people I follow if anyone is looking for guidance.
 
Im pretty new to the crypto world but i have been reading basically the same.. its gunna hit 15k, or its gunna hit 100k lol. Apparently itll never grow beyond its volatile stock market ways untill the cap gets removed, the max amount of coins. They are trying ti push for ethereum to be the new thing. With nft's being completely ethereum based. Idk about you guys but i laughed when i learned about nft's, like it seemed everywhere i went people were mentioning nft's even my bank was telling everyone its time to hop on the nft stock, then i learned what an nft is. But it shows that they are starting to try to grow ethereum, even though nfts are tanking too.
 
Yea I have a friend who's pretty invested in crypto like he's already made a lifetimes worth of money and he told me not to bother trying it again for another 5 or 10 years. Not sure why but he knows more then I do about it. Don't take my advice I'm just repeating what a buddy said
 
Cheapshot said:
Im kinda on the fence to buy now or let it drop more. I think this latest dip is great for crypto, might push out all the shitcoins and let Bitcoin really shine. What are you guys thinking, im kinda a newbie. If I can get 1 BTC under 15k Im gonna have a hard time not pulling the trigger.
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Me personally, I'd never hold crypto as an investment at this point, I started dabbling into finance a year or two ago, as did the rest of the world and I see too much risk for the potential returns. US equities seems lower risk with similar or better returns now.
 
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