hear me out...

[animal-inside]

You nailed it with this post...

For a recovery to be in progress labour needs to be full.. so the unemployment rate needs to go down.. the more labour supply has a shortage (less workers looking for a job because they have one) the more wages go up(busssines need an incentive to get employees ).. but it now if it is only a fixed areas that have inflation like lumbar, asset prices , home prices but other people are mostly unemployed they can’t raise rates for the time being so this painful discrepancy will remain..

for me I have been invested in FAANG since 2015-2016
I do not go into any hype stocks or anything like that.. I keep it simple on what I know has proven to be innovative and longevity... as for bonds I was i bought TLT ( us bond etf) in March , when the fed did an emergency rate cut and increased QE. Sold that in July when inflation and re opening narrative started... the narrative vaccine and re opening will cause inflation

I think hyper inflation is what triggered me lol so sorry about that

but in reality it’s not easy times to start investing we are in a very interesting period as a world economy

In your opinion?

1) is the DOW going to drop during the next year or two?

2) Are you still putting new money into FANNG companies? I can't see their growth conitnuing as the market starts to balance out.. Seems like right now these ocmpanies worth is near what it was pre covid but is that value true or inflated?

3) Why not invest with the S and P index as opposed to the FANNG?

4) What's your opnion on gold and silver right now? Do you think bigger companies will be dumping their assests soon to deal with the market (if it starts dropping off)?

 

[FitTrader]

this is my opinion and not financial advice.

1) if interest rates go up the Dow will actually perform better since it has a good component of bank... banks do better when rates are higher (if there is inflation fed will raise rates sooner then expected).. higher rates is bad for tech stocks ( index such as Nasdaq and s&p) also bad for bonds

2) every index is ABOVE pre covid... the s&p500 crashed in feb2020 at it’s all time high of 3390... it closed at 4185 Friday so we’re wayyyy over extended and beyond covid levels and this will continue unless their is another catalyst or if the fed begins to raise rates sooner then the projected 2023 rate hikes...

3) you can Nasdaq , S&p, or individual stocks
Buy dips when you hear there is panic.. sell rallies of % increase.. don’t buy high sell low.. buy low sell high.. sounds so cliche but it’s what it is.. instead people buy Tesla at 800 and sell at 600... should be you buy at 600 when the idiots who bought at 800 sell it to you at a discount same for Apple.. you could of picked up Apple in March around 118-120 and now we’re at 134... that’s good small time frame trade.. buy dips.. but if you want to be BUILDING core positions for long term you have to wait for the catalysts to get the best discount price.. right now Nasdaq s&p Dow are all times high.. this is not the time.. you wait for the headlines to read “Nasdaq down 15%... Apple down 19%, .. and then you can look to enter some positions.. that you can be comfortable with

gold acts like a hedge to inflation.. but gold has not acted as it should relative to its macro fundamentals.. gold should rally as usd goes down.. but it didn’t.. I don’t follow them much as they are not as respected to their fundamentals as before... but you have a good point.. in a point of crash ( catalyst) everything gets dumped stocks long dated bonds gold silver etc.. and usd rallies... which ties in to the point that’s when you can build a nice portfolio

 

[FitTrader]

the show is being pushed by the excess liquidity provided by central banks.. the flood of QE and Low rates fuels excess risk taking and there is no moral hazard.. if something bad happens we know the fed or any central bank will save the day./ so there is Extra risk taking.. example the fed buys corporate bonds of any credit rating if needed.. example Boeing issued a 40 year bond with an amazing % rate.. it was CHEWED UP my investors because of the high yield and if Boeing has every one of its planes crash and they lose value this corporate bond on all these hedge fund and banks balance sheets will be bought by the federal reserve.. it’s like you have a big brother that will punch anyone in the face for you no matter what even if your a little shit

 

[FitTrader]

So we are reaching a point that they continue to allow everyone to drink from the punch bowl or they pull it away and see what happens lol and if they pull and it’s bad they will bring it back..

 

[ironwill]

So we are reaching a point that they continue to allow everyone to drink from the punch bowl or they pull it away and see what happens lol and if they pull and it’s bad they will bring it back..

Great Topic Animal Inside, and you are a humble fellow, always seeking to learn. Good on you.

Fit trader, great information brother. Thanks a ton for sharing this.
We should start a financial section and let you head it up.... Serious.
I appreciate this information sharing.

 

[Sorbate]

the show is being pushed by the excess liquidity provided by central banks.. the flood of QE and Low rates fuels excess risk taking and there is no moral hazard.. if something bad happens we know the fed or any central bank will save the day./ so there is Extra risk taking.. example the fed buys corporate bonds of any credit rating if needed.. example Boeing issued a 40 year bond with an amazing % rate.. it was CHEWED UP my investors because of the high yield and if Boeing has every one of its planes crash and they lose value this corporate bond on all these hedge fund and banks balance sheets will be bought by the federal reserve.. it’s like you have a big brother that will punch anyone in the face for you no matter what even if your a little shit

Damn, you make me want to learn.
it seems like its more on speculation and gut instinct mixed with some educated guesses, and not really crunching numbers.
or am I completely wrong.
oh and I’m not saying it’s easy. It must be a big talent to see where something is heading.

 

[FitTrader]

Damn, you make me want to learn.
it seems like its more on speculation and gut instinct mixed with some educated guesses, and not really crunching numbers.
or am I completely wrong.
oh and I’m not saying it’s easy. It must be a big talent to see where something is heading.

It’s all speculation exactly.. if enough people think the same thing the price will move in that direction.. it’s not up to me or you.. it’s hedge funds and banks and pension funds who decide and us as retail need to use all the information provided to try and latch on to what the big guys do... so anything can happen at anytime for example look up BILL HWANG.. he was 1 guy running a family office of 20b leveraged to 200b in positions... he was massively long viacomCBS discovery and other stocks.. because he got margin called the stocks crashed because banks had to force to close his long position.. look up the chart on google.. if your retail and you bought it cuz it looked bullish you did profit but also 1 guy was able to cause that drop... so nothing is promised

 

[FitTrader]

Great Topic Animal Inside, and you are a humble fellow, always seeking to learn. Good on you.

Fit trader, great information brother. Thanks a ton for sharing this.
We should start a financial section and let you head it up.... Serious.
I appreciate this information sharing.

Would be cool
I feel a lot of regular people don’t understand the basics and there’s so much more depth to it.. for example the “money printing” can be commonly mistaken for wheel barrels of money being rolled out the bank of Canada lol

 

[IronRobi]

@FitTrader Why FAANG over an asset allocation etf? While those 5 are all solid companies, and will likely continue to do well for a while, the portfolio as a whole won't be very diverse. You end up with 100% foreign equities and 100% in the tech sector. So the risk would be incredibly high. I would think over the long-term these 5 won't continuously outperform the market.

From your posts, you sound like someone either educated or working in finance. So I'm curious on this strategy over something like a simple diverse equity index fund (ie: VEQT, XEQT)

 

[Sorbate]

Would be cool
I feel a lot of regular people don’t understand the basics and there’s so much more depth to it.. for example the “money printing” can be commonly mistaken for wheel barrels of money being rolled out the bank of Canada lol

I don’t understand the basics and need to learn the terminology.
I think I may start to teach myself as I do cardio.
More for something new to learn.

 

[FitTrader]

@FitTrader Why FAANG over an asset allocation etf? While those 5 are all solid companies, and will likely continue to do well for a while, the portfolio as a whole won't be very diverse. You end up with 100% foreign equities and 100% in the tech sector. So the risk would be incredibly high. I would think over the long-term these 5 won't continuously outperform the market.

From your posts, you sound like someone either educated or working in finance. So I'm curious on this strategy over something like a simple diverse equity index fund (ie: VEQT, XEQT)

I was going through a lot of stuff but yes ETFs are very good: be it consumer staple etf bank etf and so on... I said tech ( for me personally) more in the sense that these are companies that continue to prove to be profitable and innovative and their balance sheets and earnings are good VS trying to catch a penny stock or weed stock to get lucky which then if you don’t sell at the right time shits the bed cuz your greedy.. it was more in the idea of looking at areas and companies that are strong compared to trying to find the next Apple or Tesla which I feel is what a lot of people try to do and end up dumping money into poor companies and then proceed to hate investing. All the above mentioned are good and not volatile.. but it really depends your style and time frame and goal... 2 very popular trades are long emerging markets etf and long energy... but if we have more usd strength , and covid worries along with higher rates those take a hit and then more money flows into short end bonds and banks..

this is not investment strategy advice more just a macroeconomical Breakdown of the correlated markets and how interest rates effect it all!

 

[animal-inside]

I don’t understand the basics and need to learn the terminology.
I think I may start to teach myself as I do cardio.
More for something new to learn.

Just warning you... Its a rabbit hole... It's a hobby like body building.. gets addicting.. the more you learn, the more you want to learn..

 

[animal-inside]

this is my opinion and not financial advice.

1) if interest rates go up the Dow will actually perform better since it has a good component of bank... banks do better when rates are higher (if there is inflation fed will raise rates sooner then expected).. higher rates is bad for tech stocks ( index such as Nasdaq and s&p) also bad for bonds

2) every index is ABOVE pre covid... the s&p500 crashed in feb2020 at it’s all time high of 3390... it closed at 4185 Friday so we’re wayyyy over extended and beyond covid levels and this will continue unless their is another catalyst or if the fed begins to raise rates sooner then the projected 2023 rate hikes...

3) you can Nasdaq , S&p, or individual stocks
Buy dips when you hear there is panic.. sell rallies of % increase.. don’t buy high sell low.. buy low sell high.. sounds so cliche but it’s what it is.. instead people buy Tesla at 800 and sell at 600... should be you buy at 600 when the idiots who bought at 800 sell it to you at a discount same for Apple.. you could of picked up Apple in March around 118-120 and now we’re at 134... that’s good small time frame trade.. buy dips.. but if you want to be BUILDING core positions for long term you have to wait for the catalysts to get the best discount price.. right now Nasdaq s&p Dow are all times high.. this is not the time.. you wait for the headlines to read “Nasdaq down 15%... Apple down 19%, .. and then you can look to enter some positions.. that you can be comfortable with

gold acts like a hedge to inflation.. but gold has not acted as it should relative to its macro fundamentals.. gold should rally as usd goes down.. but it didn’t.. I don’t follow them much as they are not as respected to their fundamentals as before... but you have a good point.. in a point of crash ( catalyst) everything gets dumped stocks long dated bonds gold silver etc.. and usd rallies... which ties in to the point that’s when you can build a nice portfolio

So I've contemplated buying into something like Air Canada (for example)..

It's still low.. I KNOW the vaule you friggin sky rocket the second covid is gone...

I was hesitant to buy because I wasn't sure how low AC would go.. And I was hestiant of them actually going bankrupt.. I have slowly learned that I don't think our federal government would let AC go under and will constantly bail them out.. But I am trying to learn how a bail out or a loan affects companies like AC value.. I would think the massive loan they just got would devalue the company as its proof they are hurting and took on a huge debt.. I haven't checked, but I think their worth went up a bit then down lots with the recent loan..

Again, I know once the corna is done, ppl will be itching to fly all over the place...

The other thought I had is, when corona is finally gone, will ppl have money to fly and vacation?? 6-12 months ago, it was such a doom and gloom situation that I was worried the avergae person who used to take vacations via planes would liekly be in recovery mode, not spend mode..

My gut is that the value of AC will continuely go up from here on out (save a few littles dips like everything else)..


Whats your thoughts on investing in AC or similar companies who are still down from corona? I think AC is different in that they will never go bankrupt though.

 

[Sorbate]

Just warning you... Its a rabbit hole... It's a hobby like body building.. gets addicting.. the more you learn, the more you want to learn..

Honestly I need a new hobby.
Really how much is there to learn about bodybuilding and the drugs.
All that is left is staying consistant.
I also want to learn Spanish.
Maybe when I make enough money trading, I’ll really be able to retire in Costa Rica, lol.
Gotta dream.

 

[animal-inside]

Damn, you make me want to learn.
it seems like its more on speculation and gut instinct mixed with some educated guesses, and not really crunching numbers.
or am I completely wrong.
oh and I’m not saying it’s easy. It must be a big talent to see where something is heading.

I have a good friend who lives and dies to learn about investing and invest himself..

It's not as much as a guessing game as ppl think.. THere's always risk, but those who know what to do, do well..

I'll tell you though, its friggin stressfull if you put some money into it.. lol.. It's very addicting so you need to keep your cool and think things through..

I did make like $7,000 in a couple days last summer.. my gut and what I read told me to sell it, but I didnt... then I lost that gain over a week or so lol.. was a ride of emotions.

 

[animal-inside]

Honestly I need a new hobby.
Really how much is there to learn about bodybuilding and the drugs.
All that is left is staying consistant.
I also want to learn Spanish.
Maybe when I make enough money trading, I’ll really be able to retire in Costa Rica, lol.
Gotta dream.

I'm not sure about you, but the day I walked into a real gym and did a "workout" I haven't been able to read enough about every aspect of getting biugger, stronger, leaner, healthier etc.. it never ends lol

 

[Sorbate]

I have a good friend who lives and dies to learn about investing and invest himself..

It's not as much as a guessing game as ppl think.. THere's always risk, but those who know what to do, do well..

I'll tell you though, its friggin stressfull if you put some money into it.. lol.. It's very addicting so you need to keep your cool and think things through..

I did make like $7,000 in a couple days last summer.. my gut and what I read told me to sell it, but I didnt... then I lost that gain over a week or so lol.. was a ride of emotions.

I have an older customer. He told me to buy into consumables.
Anyhow he said he will buy in a certain amount, if it goes up 10% he buys a bit more another 10% a bit more.
This way if it drops when you sell you didn’t lose it all bug likeky still come out ahead.
He said he doesn’t get rich, but he makes 30-40 grand a year, and rarely takes a loss.

 

[animal-inside]

Honestly I need a new hobby.
Really how much is there to learn about bodybuilding and the drugs.
All that is left is staying consistant.
I also want to learn Spanish.
Maybe when I make enough money trading, I’ll really be able to retire in Costa Rica, lol.
Gotta dream.

My buddy who invests has been trying to talk me into getting into it for over 10 years.. He finally got me hooked after he sent me this simple video

If you watch the video, understand you can invest with the S and P or DOW and you can invest against it lol..

When times are good, invest with the DOW/S and P..

When recession comes, invest against it with somethign like DXD

I couldn't imagine the cash you would have had had you put 10,000$ in DVXD when covid hit, then sold it all when the market hit rock bottom and then invested everything into the DOW or S and P..

Inevesting always makes it so you can't help but look back and say "fuck I wish I did this or that"

 

[Funnyman]

I'm going to get some transat air stocks, just before the air planes fly.

 

[FitTrader]

So I've contemplated buying into something like Air Canada (for example)..

It's still low.. I KNOW the vaule you friggin sky rocket the second covid is gone...

I was hesitant to buy because I wasn't sure how low AC would go.. And I was hestiant of them actually going bankrupt.. I have slowly learned that I don't think our federal government would let AC go under and will constantly bail them out.. But I am trying to learn how a bail out or a loan affects companies like AC value.. I would think the massive loan they just got would devalue the company as its proof they are hurting and took on a huge debt.. I haven't checked, but I think their worth went up a bit then down lots with the recent loan..

Again, I know once the corna is done, ppl will be itching to fly all over the place...

The other thought I had is, when corona is finally gone, will ppl have money to fly and vacation?? 6-12 months ago, it was such a doom and gloom situation that I was worried the avergae person who used to take vacations via planes would liekly be in recovery mode, not spend mode..

My gut is that the value of AC will continuely go up from here on out (save a few littles dips like everything else)..


Whats your thoughts on investing in AC or similar companies who are still down from corona? I think AC is different in that they will never go bankrupt though.

The way your thinking makes total sense and is the right way to approach things.. but you always gotta think bigger picture.. AC is a mess and the situation and gov help make it hard to be bullish but grabbing and hold with a 5 year time frame is good there is upside.. when the positions vaccine news and reopening narrative came to play etf ticket JETS which is a package of airlines rallied nicely.. so your idea of thinking but with JETS would of been much nicer then AC..

And consumers personal savings have increased
there will be a boom of leisure when it’s allowed