nobody concerned about evergrande?

Evil Spock

Well-known member
Trusted Member
evergrande is chinas largest real estate developer, most one of the most indebted companies at $300b and at the brink of bankruptcy. domestically chinese are largely invested in real estate because chinese companies are largely shit. chinas economy is largely a pyramid scheme built on real estate growth. imo, its not a question of being a chinese financial crisis but if it will spill into ours. everyone i speak to looks at me like im talking about ufos.
 
Doesnt matter.
Markets in the USA felt the risk last Friday and Monday but everything was settled once they agreed to making a payment to for their bond Thursday and PBOC injected liquidity to calm markets.

it will pass
It is no Lehman’s brother
 
Since may2021 it’s been known this was going to a problem

so by the time we sit here and regular folks are discussing it casually most of the damages is controlled
 
thats an optimistic way to look at it. feeling risk as you say is preemptive market reactions. they missed the interest payment and injecting money isnt a bailout. its only a short term intervention.
 
The US market is definitely heading for a downturn. Will Evergrande helps things along...possibly but in Canada I feel we are somewhat insulated from what goes on down there.
 
It’s not an optimistic way to look at it. It’s the way that is presented via the information provided. If there was real risk there would be a rush to us bonds which there isn’t there is actually a sept off on bonds due to the fed putting forward their taper timeline and and a chance of rate hike in 2022. That is more important than evergrande and because that fed meeting was happening the same week as the uncertainty of evergrande the markets did sell off and panic as hedging risk was very hard into FOMC Wednesday’.

how about this. what do you feel the risk is of this to USA and Canada.
more so Canada if that’s what you mean by saying if we are worried
 
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bonds rallying aggressively
Especially short end 3 month t bills
, equities selling off hard , gold selling off
US dollar rallying ( rush to US dollars as this is to cover liabilities )

that’s when I would be worried
 
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bonds rallying aggressively
Especially short end 3 month t bills
, equities selling off hard , gold selling off
US dollar rallying ( rush to US dollars as this is to cover liabilities )

that’s when I would be worried
Been looking at BABA
Might take a nibble tmrw
What do ya think?
 
KWEB BABA
They are oversold , they got hammered obviously with the Chinese crackdown on tech companies. But end of the day China economy is dominant and there is USA investors ready to pickup these cheap China tech companies.. if they do continue to inject liquidity and the crackdown aren’t as severe as everyone thought ( as the Chinese will remove the chokehold somewhat) BABA would be excellent.
 
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KWEB BABA
They are oversold , they got hammered obviously with the Chinese crackdown on tech companies. But end of the day China economy is dominant and there is USA investors ready to pickup these cheap China tech companies.. if they do continue to inject liquidity and the crackdown aren’t as severe as everyone thought ( as the Chinese will remove the chokehold somewhat) BABA would be excellent.
Thanks for KWEB
Just having a peek on trading view
Wow broke through every major fib.

Looks like it should find some support in this current range

Gonna Definitely take a nibble
 
well point 4 says this is a concern. it doesnt mention chinas shadow banking system that is in for trillions in property debt
 
yes shadow banking system and the Eurodollar system

we know what begins to crumble when the USD price begins to really go up relative to other currencies and there is a rush to pristine collateral ( tbills that are used in repo) see above post.

we aren’t there yet but again when you wake up in the morning what do you feel the risk to evergrande is to you personally
 
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it’s all Beyond our control and is handled by central banks, private and massive firms that we can’t even fathom the dollars involved
 
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